First Weekend Reflections and Second Weekend Predictions

It took until Sunday of the first weekend, but the NCAA tournament finally feels like it has arrived. A seemingly abnormal spate of non-competitive games and good games that failed to produce tight, close finishes characterized the first round and the first day of the second.

Sunday, however, delivered. I missed much of it (spring garage cleaning...I had to do my family a solid and abstain from basketball for at least some of the weekend), but Florida-UConn produced the tournament's most compelling game to date. The two-time defending champion, overlooked much of the year and by most of the predicting public, dug deep and went blow for blow with arguably the most complete team in a historically excellent SEC. UConn kept the possession totals down and shot the ball well enough (in the second half) to pull what would have been the most significant upset of the weekend, but Walter Clayton Jr. had other ideas. My favorite for the MOP proved why with several clutch threes down the stretch (I did manage to sneak inside for the last 5 minutes), though his inbound passing under Husky pressure in the waning moments had to have had Gator fans wincing. This game even delivered the tournament's first buzzer beater, albeit one that merely saw the winning margin go from 5 to 2.

The real first buzzer beater came in the evening, when Derik Queen might maybe have traveled before releasing a gorgeous fade away bank shot as time, and Colorado State's hopes of being our lone Cinderella, expired. At first I didn't even notice the footsteps preceding the shot, but replays showed how far Queen traveled after his last dribble. Was it a gather step, as the NBA calls it? Was the first step just barely attached to the continuation of the dribbling action? Was the ball not possessed in a non-dribbling way until Queen held it in two hands? We really got to dig into some technical minutia in the aftermath. In my opinion, a traveling call in that situation, when there was reasonable debate on whether it was or wasn't, would have ruined an iconic finish. I do feel bad for Colorado State, and all of us who hang our hats on these smaller conference teams knocking out the big boys. They played fantastic and hit an equally iconic shot just before Queen worked his finishing magic.

Meanwhile, in Seattle, Arizona and Oregon treated us all to a series of riveting who-touched-it-last video dissections that stretched the final minute to nearly a half hour. At what point will we determine that obsessively getting the call right ruins a game's flow and watchability? It's a difficult balance to strike. And while we're on the subject, I understand the strategy of fouling and putting your opponent on the line when leading by three in the final seconds, as Arizona did twice in this game, but it's another one of those things that cuts into the entertainment value of the game. The name of the game is to win, yes, but there's a certain ruthlessness to this strategy that feels inauthentic to me. It cuts against the spirit of the game and against honest competition. It's not cheating, but is that really how you 'should' close a game out? One could certainly make the argument, and I suppose I am, that it's more noble to play tight defense and applaud your opponent if they overcome it with a last second shot, than to exploit the rulebook to your strategic advantage. Maybe I'm old-fashioned, but if I were coaching I'd sleep better at night knowing that I was beaten in spite of our team's best efforts than to have cut an arbitrary corner to win at any cost. In any case, another potentially fantastic finish was snuffed out by analytic tactics and an overly drawn out replay system.

In terms of the big picture, rounds one and two delivered 11 upsets in total, 8 minor and 3 major, and a cumulative Madness Factor of 42. As I mentioned in my running commentary over the weekend, these are abnormally low totals when compared with 40 years of 64+ team March Madness fields, and especially with the last few high-chaos tournaments we've had post-COVID. That aggregate Madness Factor of 42 is actually the second-lowest through the first weekend of all time, trailing only the paltry 24 generated in 2007.

I was clearly off in my encouragement to predict a tournament Madness Factor between 70 and 125. I overvalued the recent trend of high upset, high volatility tournaments and ignored the fact that 14 tournaments in the modern era have produced Madness Factors lower than that range. I simply didn't think it could happen. My mistake. It clearly can, and will. Even if each of the remaining 15 tournament games were to be won by the higher seed (all upsets), the final Madness Factor (let's call it 'Max Madness') would be 91. That won't happen, of course, but even if it did it wouldn't sniff the top tier of maddest tournaments on record.

To follow up on a graphic I showed after round one, here's a look at what this tournament looks like compared with the 12 other tournaments with first weekend Madness Factors of 55 or below:

Only one of these events had a Madness Factor that eclipsed 70, though the upset totals varied widely. That figures to continue. With all the favorites that remain, we'll be hard pressed to see our final Madness Factor clear the current second-lowest number of 53. I hate to be Captain Obvious, but it's clear that we're in the midst of a historically uncharacteristic tournament.

I'll get into this more in a Tournament Postmortem article once the confetti has fallen and nets have been cut, but we could be at another historic hinge point. The highly mad tournaments of the last decade, and especially in the post-COVID years of 2021, 22, and 23, led me to assume that the Madness would either continue to get madder, or at least stay at the same level. Player movement and NIL money, I assumed, would continue to produce more parity. But what actually seems to be happening is that the power conference schools are growing their NIL pools, and have far more capacity to do so than those of smaller conferences. The rich get richer. But for a few exceptions (Gonzaga), they're likely to continue. Parity may actually be swallowed up by a mega-conference monopoly that will create future tournaments with fewer upsets and less chaos.

This may not be entirely negative, however. Look at the Sweet 16 we have on deck. What is lacking in Cinderella intrigue is more than made up for by an incredible slate of matchups. Possibly the most compelling Sweet 16, as a whole, we've ever seen. Each regional could be mistaken for a Final 4 in itself. This is what happens when it's all power conference teams, and top tier ones at that, filling out the field.

To get you ready for Thursday and Friday's action, here's my quick breakdown and prediction, listed in reverse order of how compelling I perceive each matchup to be:

8. TEXAS TECH vs. ARKANSAS: West Region, Thursday

Let's face it: Arkansas wouldn't be here if St. John's hadn't shot the ball worse than most middle school teams. Texas Tech is unlikely to have such a woeful day behind the arc, and they have the grit and the bodies to trouble Arkansas on the interior in much the same way the Johnnies did. The Red Raiders should win fairly comfortably.

Texas Tech 75, Arkansas 62

7. MICHIGAN STATE vs. OLE MISS: South Region, Friday

The Spartans have shot the ball well through their first few games, but their season-long struggles could very well catch them out here. Chris Beard is an excellent defensive coach, and I expect him to make Michigan State's threes more contested while keeping things tidy on the glass.

Ole Miss 69, Michigan State 65

6. HOUSTON vs. PURDUE: Midwest Region, Friday

I don't know if it's because I just don't really like Purdue, if I'm tired of them after seeing so much Zach Edey last year, or if they're actually overrated, but I can't imagine them testing Houston here. Don't be surprised if this is the most lopsided result of the round.

Houston 77, Purdue 57

5. TENNESSEE vs. KENTUCKY: Midwest Region, Friday

I typically don't like when conference foes meet in the NCAA Tournament. We have the regular season for that. Kentucky swept both matchups against the Vols, but any coach or athlete will tell you how difficult it is to win that third tilt. Tennessee in a tight one.

Tennessee 81, Kentucky 76

4. AUBURN vs. MICHIGAN: South Region, Friday

The fact that this is my fourth most compelling game of the round says something about how exciting this weekend could be. Michigan should present an excellent challenge for Auburn, with their length that can neutralize Johni Broome and Dylan Cardwell and pull them away from prime shot-blocking territory, and a secret weapon in Tre Donaldson, who played for Auburn last year and may offer an insiders edge on Auburn's tactics. Upset city, baby!

Michigan 73, Auburn 71

3. DUKE vs. ARIZONA: East Region, Thursday

If Duke plays at the level they did in their first 2 games, there are only two, maybe three, teams that can beat them. Arizona isn't one of them, though I wouldn't be surprised if they manage to keep it close until the game's latter stages.

Duke 84, Arizona 72

2. ALABAMA vs. BYU: East Region, Thursday

I could not be more excited for this matchup. I only wish it wasn't scheduled alongside my choice for the most compelling matchup of the round. This one should be an absolute track meet, with two high level offenses that arrive at efficiency in different ways. Most of Alabama's offense runs through the terrific Mark Sears, while BYU's motion and deft passing can open things up for a different player each game. It's that depth, and the fact that they're truly peaking at the right time, that tips this one in favor of the Cougars.

BYU 94, Alabama 91

1. FLORIDA vs. MARYLAND: West Region, Thursday

This one could be a classic. Both teams bring stellar guards and next-level athletes. It's a coin flip as to whether Walter Clayton Jr. or Derik Queen is suddenly half the country's favorite player come Friday morning. In the end it may come down to depth, which highly favors the Gators. If Maryland gets into any sort of foul trouble, they're cooked. Ultimately I think it will come down to Clayton and Queen trading haymakers, and Clayton's age and experience gives Florida the win.

Florida 80, Maryland 78

Lastly, let's collectively mourn the fact that another tournament will pass without perfection. The tournament may have been devoid of any truly unthinkable upsets, but the iron laws of exponential math could once again not be broken. ESPN's last undefeated bracket, appropriately named #RoadtoPerfection, soared like Icarus to unfathomable heights--the first 42 games picked correctly--only to be scorched by a burning orange menace. As Illinois' road ended, so did perfections.

Sigh. We'll all try to do better next year. On to the Sweet 16!