Stats and Thoughts on the 2025 Tournament

Periodically throughout this year's tournament I'll post a random assortment of observations and commentary. I'll major on the pursuit of a perfect bracket and items related to my parameters and metrics, but look for other stats and thoughts too. It's not quite a live blog, but check back often.

SATURDAY NIGHT

Before jumping in to our up to the moment stats and my musings on today's action, let's do a quick review of round one. It wasn't the chaos-filled, high octane start we all probably wanted, and certainly won't go down as the most memorable or exciting first round in history, but the favorites are happy and it wasn't entirely dull. No buzzer beaters and no overtime games, but we got a few near-comebacks and a couple of tempting first halves (Omaha vs. St. John's, Robert Morris vs. Alabama, Bryant vs. Michigan State, and even, to a degree, Alabama State vs. Auburn) in which it looked like we'd see our annual bracket buster upset, but it never materialized as the big boys flexed their muscles in the second half. Or, in Alabama's case, in the last 5 minutes.

It's unlikely we'll get another opportunity for the fabled bracket buster upset--the only potential matchup in which it would present itself is (12) Colorado State vs. (1) Florida. It looks like this will be the first tournament without a bracket buster upset since 2019, and only the third such tournament since 2010.

The relative mildness of this tournament (to date, at least) extends to the upsets and Madness Factor of the first round. We had 6 upsets, but only two of them fit the major category (seed difference of greater than 5)--12-seeds McNeese and Colorado State. This was the lowest first round upset total since 2017 (also 6), and just the third tournament with 6 or fewer first round upsets since 2008 (17 events).

The first round Madness Factor of 24 is the lowest since the anomalous 2007 event, the strangest tournament in history due to its utter lack of chaos. And this year's first round ranks as the 4th least-mad in the modern era, behind 2000 (Madness Factor=11), 2007 (MF=13), and 2004 (MF=18). What might this mean for what type of tournament we'll see the rest of the way? I have a chart:

These are the 8 tournaments with the lowest first round Madness Factors. As this graph shows, the likelihood of this tournament reaching the low end of my prescribed prediction range (70) isn't strong. Only two of these 8 tournaments (1988, 2000) eclipsed it, and those only reached 74. Time will tell, but it would take some remarkable results for 2025 to even reach the average Madness Factor of 81.4.

On to today's action...

Upsets: 9 (6 Minor [BYU, Michigan, Baylor, Drake, Arkansas, Creighton], 3 Major [Arkansas, Colorado State, McNeese])

Up to the Moment Madness Factor: 36 (amazingly, the average of 4 per upset continues unabated)

Perfect Bracket Progress: After 3 days and 40 games, 3 out of the 24,388,544 of the brackets submitted to ESPN's Tournament Challenge are still perfect. Three. One of these is aptly named #RoadToPerfection. This bracket hero has Duke cutting down the nets, and the following teams penciled in to win on Sunday: Duke, Oregon, Alabama, Ole Miss, Michigan State, Florida, Maryland, and Illinois. Seems like a reasonable chance of walking away from the first weekend unscathed. We'll see.

Game Notes:

• The quality of games ramped up considerably today. From the intensity of Arkansas-St. John's, to the fluidity and pace of BYU-Wisconsin, to the grind-it-out nature of Auburn-Creighton, we were treated to some terrific basketball.

• We finally got that electric March moment of two close games crashing toward tense conclusions in close succession. As soon as BYU closed out Wisconsin in dramatic fashion, we got the frenetic last minute of Houston-Gonzaga. That's what we were waiting all weekend for. Now it feels like the tourney is alive.

• The St. John's-Arkansas game was undeniably intense, but the officiating deserves some criticism. On the halftime show, Charles Barkley rightly stated that, in spite of 19 fouls being called in the first half, it was a compelling game in which the players were largely given a long leash. The second half was a different story. It felt like there was a whistle on every possession and the game turned into a procession of free throws; the exact opposite of the hardscrabble, dig-deep-for-every-point feel of the first half. My guess is that the officials' debrief at halftime included conversation over how physical the game had been to that point, and led to a decision to try to tone things down. Both teams had already internalized that they'd be able to play in a very 1980's Big East style, and never adjusted to how closely the game was then called. It was still a good game, but I would have preferred the refs been consistent throughout.

• I have to devote some space to the marvelous BYU-Wisconsin contest. Wisconsin committed only 5 turnovers and their superstar, John Tonje, poured in a tournament-high 37, and they lost. Wisconsin battled brilliantly, but as good as their offense was, BYU's was better. I was again struck by the Cougars' pace, their movement, their fluidity, the crispness of their passes and the conviction they put behind every shot. BYU is as T-E-A-M team as it gets, and it shows in how quick and efficient they run their offense. Every player trusts every other, and they each innately seem to know where everyone else on the floor is at all times. Their offense just feels like it's a beat or two faster than anyone else I've seen this weekend to date. This, to me, explains their season - they foundered for the first 2/3 of the year and were squarely on the bubble as the calendar turned to February. Then came their annihilation of Kansas, and they hit another gear. I have to think the first 2/3 of the season was what it took for them to develop the trust and the reps needed to run an offense that, quite honestly, fit right at home at the site of their first two games, where the NBA's Nuggets play. If Alabama gets past St. Mary's tomorrow, a BYU-Alabama Sweet 16 will be must watch TV.

• Speaking of which, the next round is shaping up to be epic. I suppose that is what happens when favorites largely reign. Check the matchups already set: Houston vs. Purdue, Auburn vs. Michigan, Arkansas vs. Texas Tech. Even though Arkansas has a 10 next to their name, they're a tremendous team coming into form at the right time. Each of these are tremendous matchups, and we could see 5 others of equal quality on tap by the end of tomorrow. A lack of first weekend chaos might feel like a bit of a letdown, but it does set the stage for two potentially fantastic weekends of basketball to come.

• This isn't a comment about the games, and it will probably earn me the label 'crotchety,' but I have to question whoever at CBS decided to choose Lady Gaga's new release as the theme music to be used throughout the weekend. The words "Abracadabra amor oo na na" do not get me excited for basketball. Or really anything for that matter.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON

This afternoon's games are still unfolding, but I've got some friends joining me to watch games soon so I'll post a couple of quick thoughts now.

Upsets: 6 (4 minor [Baylor, Drake, Arkansas, Creighton], 2 major [Colorado State, McNeese])

Up to the Moment Madness Factor: 24 (average Madness Factor of 4 per upset)

Oddly, unless Mt. St. Mary's (nope), Vanderbilt (maybe), or UNC (hopefully, for my bracket) wins one of the in-progress games, each session has produced a Madness Factor of 8: a 9 and 12 win yesterday afternoon and today, a 10 and 11 win last night.

Perfect Bracket Progress: The ESPN tracker is down to 5,572 perfect brackets remaining, which is honestly a pretty solid total at this point. Here's hoping one of those 5,572 fine folks carries perfection at least into another day.

Game Notes

• Baylor vexes me. They've got a great coach and a nice roster, but have underperformed all year. They were in control most of the day today too, but held on by a fingernail in the end. What will ultimately determine whether they give Duke a run (they certainly can) or get blown out is one V.J. Edgecombe. An announcer in one of their games earlier this year commented that he doesn't seem to realize just how talented he is, and I have to agree. There are moments when he looks like the next Anthony Edwards, and stretches where he disappears. If he can move past some timidity and play for a full game at his ceiling, look out.

• Penny Hardaway was a fantastic player. And of all the basketball shoes I went through as a youth, his were the coolest. But he is not a good coach. Memphis has had gobs of talent for several years with nothing to show for it. They lost today because of foolish decisions and sloppy play, all attributable to coaching. In last night's notes I marveled at what Mark Few has done at Gonzaga, and in my bracket breakdown coach the other day I called Memphis the anti-Gonzaga due to their deflated predictive metrics compared with actual results (opposite of Gonzaga). Predictive metrics are somewhat based on a team's perceived talent level; when they underperform even while winning their future predictive metrics take a hit. This has been Memphis's story all year. It was fine when playing overmatched AAC foes, as they won almost ins spite of themselves. But once again the NCAA tournament bit them. That's 100% on the coach. Raw talent will only take you so far. Penny is one of Memphis's all time great players, but they'd be wise to consider a change.

• As good as North Carolina looked Tuesday, they look almost as bad (so far) today. Looking up from my computer, I see a 38-21 score, and every previous time I've looked up in the past 10 minutes I've seen a Carolina player wildly slashing into the lane and throwing the ball toward the backboard like someone slipping on ice and tossing a bag of groceries into the air, foul or no. We'll see if they can find it before the afternoon is out, but it doesn't look good.

  
  

THURSDAY NIGHT

There are certain things you can set your clocks to: the rising and setting of the sun, tax day, the alarming appearance of Christmas paraphernalia on shelves in mid-September, and me abandoning my March Madness predictions, so carefully laid out in the days before, and going into Thanos-mode, calling for upsets to rain fire on the landscape because my own bracket has been annihilated. We have reached that time, which annually arrives around 9:17pm on the first Thursday of the NCAA Tournament. Lock this away for next year: while my Parameters that can guide us toward a perfect bracket, my Picks cannot. I picked High Point, not McNeese. I picked Yale. I picked Louisville and Kansas and Missouri. I very nearly talked myself into picking Wofford. Same song, different year.

But enough of the personal lamenting. Tonight gave us significantly better basketball than today, and our upset and Madness Factor totals are starting to grow.

Upsets: 4 (3 minor [Drake, Arkansas, Creighton], 1 major [McNeese])

Up to the Moment Madness Factor: 16 (average Madness Factor of 4 per upset)

Perfect Bracket Progress: Of the 24 million+ brackets filled out in ESPN's Tournament Challenge, exactly 26,825 are still perfect. In our little corner of that megalopolis of failure, all 59 brackets have suffered 2 or more defeats.

Game Notes

• I love watching some of the 14, 15, and 16 seeds because of the visual difference in the players they put on the floor compared with the blue bloods. Yale, Wofford, and UNCW featured centers who appeared to be no taller than 6'5", incapable of dunking, several steps down the road toward baldness, and possessing the approximate posture and body shape of a bear attempting to walk on two legs. It makes me appreciate two things: 1) how many of these players are absolute specimens, and 2) that pear-shaped people have a place in the game too. I'd look much the same as those gentlemen from Wofford and Yale, only shorter, slower, and far more bald.

• The fact that UC San Diego hung around with Michigan is amazing. Michigan was markedly bigger, faster, stronger, and more athletic. San Diego's players looked like a what you might get if you asked AI to create a college basketball team from San Diego. Half of them looked like they barely had enough time to shower the sand off their feet in one of those beach showers before suiting up. Their game even felt as casual and nonchalant, yet effective, as the breezy athleticism you'd find in an expert surfer.

• Both Missouri and Arkansas won the uniform game, showing up in fits that immediately brought me back to the mid-90's. For a second I thought John Calipari summoned Corliss Williamson to come off the bench. Made me feel like a high schooler again.

• Speaking of Arkansas, their matchup with Kansas was a study of contrasts and coaching. Both teams scorched the nets in the first half and appeared to be headed the same direction in the second. Then Bill Self had Kansas pivot to a zone defense, and suddenly a fleet of sports cars morphed into dump trucks. Arkansas was baffled, but then they too ratcheted up the defense, as though Nolan Richardson was sitting next to Calipari, whispering 40 Minutes of Hell secrets into his ear. Kansas inched ahead, but Arkansas found enough footing to finish with the win.

• I've previously mentioned the remarkable success 11-seeds have had throughout Tournament history. Drake continued the trend tonight, and they may be an excellent example of why 11's consistently punch above their weight. Their conference, the Missouri Valley, is one of the stronger of the mid-major leagues, which makes it difficult for teams like Drake to schedule games against power 5 foes--the risk of an embarrassing loss is too great. So while many of the teams from the Valley are as strong, if not stronger, than mid-range power 5 teams, they don't have nearly the opportunities to show it. Their tournament resumes end up light on Quads 1 and 2, so even in spite of at-times gaudy records (Drake's win was their 31st this year), they rarely merit a seed reflective of their quality. The 11 and 12 line are where those high-level mid-majors wind up, and the long history of 12-over-5 upsets and lengthy stays in the tournament by 11's prove that they're every bit as good as the power 5 teams assigned to the 5, 6, and 7 lines. McNeese is the second example backing this up just today.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON

As far as quality of games and overall level of drama, Thursday afternoon felt closer to March Meh than March Madness. But the tourney is underway, so I'll take it. High Point pressing Purdue and Clemson's near-comeback were fun, but nothing came close to one of those MOMENTS this event routinely delivers. I doubt we'll see much from this afternoon on One Shining Moment in 3 weeks.

Upsets: 2 (1 minor [Creighton], 1 major [McNeese])

McNeese became the 56th 12-seed to win a first round game, though few people would call it a shocker. Clemson played possibly the worst first half in NCAA history, shooting like a blind man throwing darts.

Up to the Moment Madness Factor: 8

Perfect Bracket Progress: I'm not able to keep an eye on all the sites running bracket contests, but ESPN's has always been my contest-of-choice and the one likely drawing the most brackets. Our snuggly little Perfect Bracket Project pool wound up with 59 entries, and not one of them went 8-for-8. At a higher level, ESPN saw over 24 million entries, and 504,779 still have a chance at perfection (2.2% of all entries, to be exact). Follow along on your own with their fun little ticker. If any readers have eyeballs on numbers from other sites, add them in the comments.

I'm struck by how relatively few brackets still remain unscathed, given that no WOW upsets happened. It's a testimony of the ruthless efficiency of exponential math. We'll see how long any shot at perfection goes...

Game Notes:

• BYU is real. They dispatched a very solid VCU team with ease. They have length, depth, range, and an NBA-level of efficiency. Beating Wisconsin in round 2 will be a tougher order, but this team is a problem.

• Is that the old Gonzaga I see? The Zags raced out to a 27-5 lead on Georgia and set the game on cruise from there. I still think Houston will overwhelm them, but the many folks who penciled Gonzaga into the Sweet 16 again have to feel pretty good. The Zags are so consistent in March that we completely overlook what a remarkable 3-decade story the program is. What Mark Few has built is completely unmatched, even within the whole history of the sport. A remote Jesuit non-football school in the Pacific Northwest becoming a major power in an unprecedented era of college basketball parity. Pick a random mid-major right now--let's say Wofford, since they're on my TV screen currently--and imagine that, in 30 years, they're a household name that has won their regular season conference 28 years in a row and advanced to 15 straight Sweet 16's. You can't. That's what Mark Few has done.

• I liked the friskiness Alabama State brought, giving Auburn a sweat for a short while. Contrast that with the more typical 16-seed performance of SIUE. Here's hoping tomorrow's 16's can be more Hornet than whatever mascot SIUE is. (Google search)... Cougar. They're Cougars.

On to Thursday night!