Back in my first post, I wrote a de facto vision statement for the Perfect Bracket Project: to make the impossible a reality by obsessively studying the brackets of the past in order to deduce the brackets of the future. Could it be pithier? Sure, but self-editing is hard.
This post is where we'll really plunge headlong into the depths of history. I should warn you, though: there are a lot of lists and rankings to come. Or maybe, if your mind works like mine (for your sake I hope it doesn't), lists and rankings entice you. Whatever your persuasion, making sense of the past helps us prepare for the future, and that's what this project is all about. If you want the TL;DR version, just skip ahead to my Madness Factor definition, then wait for my next post, where we'll extract paramaters from this historical adventure. I dare you to take the journey, though. It'll be fun, and you'll learn some things too. It's delicious and nutritious.
We took two posts to examine NCAA Tournament upsets (Post 1, Post 2), and saw that there is at least some semblance of a rhythm to them. There are general ranges of how many of each kind of upset will happen, and when, that we can use when filling out our annual brackets in mid-March. But, even though we've identified 3 upset types, this is still a little too broad. We've sketched in the major contours of the NCAA Basketball Tournament, but the beauty of a piece of art isn't in the initial sketch; it's in the details.
So I'd like to introduce a metric I call the Madness Factor. This is a numerical score that can be given to an entire tournament, a regional bracket, a single round, and even an individual team. The higher the score, the more madness that entity (team, round, tournament, etc.) produced. Think of it as a shorthand way to determine which tournament was actually the wildest, which team caused the most chaos, and how we can add some shading and color to the upset-related Perfect Bracket Parameters I gave you last time.
The Madness Factor, defined: the total seed differential of all the upsets in a given data set (a single team, a bracket, a round, a tournament).
As an example, let's look at the 2024 tournament. Starting at the most granular level, 11-seed NC State made a memorable run, on the broad shoulders of D.J. Burns, to the Final Four. Along the way, they defeated 6-seed Texas Tech (madness factor=5), 14-seed Oakland (no madness factor since they were the favorite), 2-seed Marquette (madness factor=9), and 4-seed Duke (madness factor=7) for a team Madness Factor of 21 (5+9+7). Meanwhile, the South regional, which NC State won, included 5 additional upsets (first round: 9 Texas A&M over 8 Nebraska, 10 Colorado over 7 Florida, 12 James Madison over 5 Wisconsin, and 14 Oakland over 3 Kentucky; sweet 16: 4 Duke over 1 Houston). This resulted in a bracket Madness Factor of 46. NC State's victory over Duke was the only Elite 8 upset, so that round had a Madness Factor of 7. And the entire tournament saw 19 total upsets, whose seed differentials combined to give 2024 a Madness Factor of 86.
The rest of this post offers context as to how chaotic, average, or meh each of those scores are. And we'll do that by ranking extremes. Like our example, we'll start at the most granular level: the team.
THE TOP 25 MADDEST TEAMS IN NCAA TOURNAMENT HISTORY
Why 25? Because it fits the weekly rankings so central to the sport's culture. Let's do it in reverse order too, for kicks. Oh, and to break ties I came up with another metric: Chaos Percentage. This is what percentage a given team's Madness Factor contributed to that of the whole tournament that year. The higher the Chaos Percentage, the more Madness they introduced to that March's, well, Madness.
1999 Oklahoma Sooners - Madness Factor: 17. Chaos Percentage: 16.5%
Surprise! Probably not a name you'd expect to see on this list. But the '99 Sooners made the tournament as a 13-seed, the lowest-seeded at-large team in the field. And wouldn't you know, they beat 4-seed Arizona and 5-seed Charlotte before bowing out to 1-seed Michigan State in the sweet 16. And for some reason the surname Najara has crept out of the bowels of my memory as I remember this team...
24. 2006 Bradley Braves - Madness Factor: 17, Chaos Percentage: 16.8%
Another case of a 13-seed taking down a 4 (Kansas) and a 5 (Pitt) before running into the buzzsaw of a 1-seed (Memphis). Special mention needs to be given to their second round game, which provided one of the great scorebugs of all time:
2011 Butler Bulldogs - Madness Factor: 17, Chaos Percentage: 17.1%
A mid-major (Butler was still in the Horizon League) 8-seed that advanced all the way to the national final. Amazing. And their Madness Factor could have been higher--they faced 11-seed VCU (see below) in the national semifinal. But wait! This was Butler's second straight national final--a year prior they were a Gordon Hayward heave away from stealing the title from Duke. An astonishing 2 year stretch. Brad Stevens is a basketball genius.
1990 Loyola Marymount Lions - Madness Factor: 17, Chaos Percentage: 17.5%
RIP Hank Gathers. Do yourself a favor and watch the ESPN 30 for 30 doc Guru of Go to become acquainted (or reacquainted) with this remarkable team. An hour well-spent.
2001 Temple Owls - Madness Factor: 17, Chaos Percentage: 18.3%
It gets a bit personal here. This 11-seed beat 7-seed Penn State during my junior year in State College. It remains the only instance in my lifetime of the Nittany Lions advancing that far (Sweet 16). I watched that game, heartbroken, in our basketball arena on the big screen. On the bright side, the intense malaise surrounding Penn State basketball meant that snagging front row student section seats was easy, and we'd storm the court if we beat anyone remotely good. I court stormed six times in my college career; once for a win over Siena. That's right, Siena.
2014 Connecticut Huskies - Madness Factor: 18, Chaos Percentage: 16.2%
A blue blood makes the list! It won't be the last. In one of the wildest tournaments ever (see below), 7th seeded UConn got hot at the right time, accumulating wins over a 2, a 3, a 4, and a 1 seed before beating 8-seed Kentucky in the most unlikely power-program final ever staged.
2002 Kent State Golden Flashes - Madness Factor: 18, Chaos Percentage: 18.9%
Before his Hall of Fame career as a TE for the San Diego Chargers, Antonio Gates was a power forward who led 10-seed Kent State on a Cinderella run to the Elite 8. And you can thank none other than the GOAT of college football coaches, Nick Saban, for that; Gates originally enrolled at Michigan State hoping to be a dual-sport athlete. Saban drew the line at football only, so Gates transferred. You can't make this stuff up.
1987 LSU Tigers - Madness Factor: 18, Chaos Percentage: 21.2%
The maddest two-year run in NCAA history is undoubtedly that of LSU in 1986 and 1987. After making the final 4 as an 11-seed in '86 (again, see below), the Tigers nearly repeated the feat as a 10-seed in '87. They fell a mere one point short, losing in the Elite 8 to eventual champion Indiana 77-76.
2008 Davidson Wildcats - Madness Factor: 18, Chaos Percentage: 28.1%
Steph Curry literally changed how basketball is played, and this is when he offered a sneak peek of all that was to come. I could say more, but just watch...
2021 Oregon State Beavers - Madness Factor: 19, Chaos Percentage: 14.8%
The 12th seeded Beavers have the lowest Chaos Percentage of anyone making this list, in spite of the fact that they were just the second 12-seed ever to reach the Elite 8. Why? Well, let's just say that this won't be the last reference to that 2021 COVID-impacted, Indiana-bound event.
1986 Cleveland State Vikings - Madness Factor: 19, Chaos Percentage: 18.1%
Before Saint Peters or Florida-Gulf Coast or any other small school went viral with a shocking second-weekend run, there was Cleveland State, the OG of NCAA bracket busters. As 1986 was just the second year in the 64+ team era, the Vikings authored the first bracket buster upset and became the first 14-seed to make the Sweet 16. Consider them a primeval version of the much-beloved Cinderella.
2018 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers - Madness Factor: 19, Chaos Percentage: 19%
No historical survey of March Madness would be complete without Sister Jean. She became a media darling as the Ramblers' chaplain and #1 fan, seemingly praying them into a remarkable Final Four appearance.
1997 Chattanooga Mocs - Madness Factor: 19, Chaos Percentage: 25.7%
The only other 14-seed to advance to the Sweet 16 (joining Cleveland State). I was running a bracket pool in my high school at this time, and laughed when one of my best friends handed me a paper bracket with Chattanooga penciled into the Sweet 16. He did it as a joke--he just thought Chattanooga was a funny word. This is the logic sometimes needed at bracket time.
2021 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles - Madness Factor: 21, Chaos Percentage: 16.4%
Back to 2021 we go, joining Max Abmas (somehow pronounced "Ace-miss") and the Golden Eagles as they knocked out 2-seed Ohio State and 7-seed Florida to reach the Sweet 16. Amazingly, this was the first of 3 consecutive tournaments with a 15-seed going that far (see below).
2013 Florida Gulf Coast Eagles - Madness Factor: 21, Chaos Percentage: 20%
Their chaos percentage was low, but their fun percentage was off the charts. "Dunk City" took the nation by storm, ousting 2-seed Georgetown and 7-seed San Diego State to become the first 15-seed to qualify for the Sweet 16. Here, have a few minutes of fun:
2023 Princeton Tigers - Madness Factor: 21, Chaos Percentage: 22.1%
We're ushered into the top 10 by one of the most famous names in the underdog world: Princeton. Whether standing toe to toe with mighty Georgetown, backdoor cutting their way past UCLA, or, in this case, edging 2-seed Arizona and rolling 7-seed Missouri, Princeton has left its footprint on several decades of tournament history. This team was the third of the aforementioned run of three straight years with a 15-seed reaching the Sweet 16.
2024 NC State Wolfpack - Madness Factor: 21, Chaos Percentage: 24.4%
Our example team made the top 10, and managed to add a quarter of the chaos to last year's bracket. They aren't the first 11-seed to appear on the list, nor will they be the last...
2017 Xavier Musketeers - Madness Factor: 22, Chaos Percentage: 31.9%
These Musketeers are something of a forgotten Cinderella after all those we've seen in recent years, but they actually check in with the highest Chaos Percentage of all time. The 2017 tournament was below average on the Madness Factor scale, and 11-seed Xavier's triumphs over a 6 (Maryland), a 3 (Florida State), and a 2 (Arizona) edged it above a few teams yet to appear on this list.
2014 Kentucky Wildcats - Madness Factor: 23, Chaos Percentage: 20.7%
The 2014 version of the Wildcats were anointed as a superteam, ranked #1 in the preseason polls, but they stumbled down the stretch, losing 4 of their last 7 regular season games to net an 8-seed from the selection committee. Everything gelled in March, though, as Aaron Harrison's clutch shooting led Kentucky through a 4-game stretch of some of the tournament's most compelling games (over undefeated 1-seed Wichita State, arch-rival 4-seed Louisville, 2-seed Michigan, and 2-seed Wisconsin). It took another pesky underseeded outfit to take them down, as Kentucky fell in the championship to 7-seed UConn, the #20 team on our list.
2021 UCLA Bruins - Madness Factor: 24, Chaos Percentage: 18.8%
Back to 2021 we go, catching up with yet another 11-seed. The heretofore underachieving Bruins made the most of their time in the Indiana COVID bubble, reaching the Final 4 before bowing out in arguably the second-greatest NCAA Tournament game ever played (1992 Duke-Kentucky is #1, without question):
2011 VCU Rams - Madness Factor: 24, Chaos Percentage: 24.2%
The Rams get the Chaos Percentage tiebreak; UCLA is held down only by the truly remarkable 2021 tournament (again, see below). Another case of an 11-seed slicing a bracket to shreds with a Final 4 run, VCU beat 6-seed Georgetown, 3-seed Purdue, and 10-seed Florida State before the real shocker: a bracket buster upset of 1-seed Kansas in the Elite 8. Their demise came at the hands of the 23rd maddest team on our list, Butler, in a colossally unpredictable Final Four matchup.
2006 George Mason Patriots - Madness Factor: 27, Chaos Percentage: 26.7%
Now we're getting to the cream of the crop. I actually thought George Mason might end up #1 or 2, as they defeated 4 single-digit seeds (6 Michigan State, 3 North Carolina, 7 Wichita State, and 1 UConn) in a magical run to the Final 4. At the time I certainly thought it was the maddest thing to ever happen in the tournament; the last 11-seed to advance that far was back in 1986, when I was only 6. And even that was... wait. I'm getting ahead of myself. For now, let's just say that George Mason doesn't have the athletic pedigree of the only other 11-seed to make the Final 4 to that point.
1985 Villanova Wildcats - Madness Factor: 29, Chaos Percentage: 31.2%
It feels odd to write this, but it's almost unfortunate that these Wildcats played so well in the national title game, against conference rival Georgetown in what has gone down in basketball history as "The Perfect Game." Sure, they needed every bit of their otherworldly 78% field goal percentage to upset the mighty Hoyas, but the attention given to that single game obscures the journey Villanova took to get there. Five of their six tournament wins were upsets, and the one non-upset was the coin flip 8-9 game. After that, the 8-seed took down a 1, a 5, and two 2 seeds before their epic performance against top-seeded Georgetown. The greatest start-to-finish Cinderella run the modern tournament has ever seen, and it came in year one of the 64+ team era.
1986 LSU Tigers - Madness Factor: 32, Chaos Percentage: 30.5%
The OG 11-seed Cinderella, these Tigers faced the most difficult opponent the Southeast bracket could allow in each round, and defeated them all. The first game took double overtime (vs. 6-seed Purdue), and the next three were all decided by single digits. The proverbial clock struck midnight against eventual champion Louisville, however, and LSU would have to wait another year to spin their magic (see our #18 team).
2022 Saint Peter's Peacocks - Madness Factor: 33, Chaos Percentage: 28.2%
Here it is, the maddest team in NCAA Tournament history. The only one with two bracket buster upsets in a single tournament (vs. 2-seed Kentucky in the first round and 3-seed Purdue in the Sweet 16). Amazingly, had they been able to pull off one more upset, in their Elite 8 matchup with 8-seed North Carolina, it would have been the mildest of their run. Their Madness Factor of 33 is greater than the entire 2007 Tournament (26), greater than 7 entire first rounds (the maddest round on average), and greater than nearly 85% of all regional brackets (132 of 156). The epitome of March Madness.
Alright. You made it this far. Good work. But we have more historical ground to cover, so grab a cup of coffee, bookmark the page and take a breather, or just forge ahead, because we've got to look at the maddest rounds, brackets, and ultimately tournaments.
THE MADDEST TOURNAMENT ROUNDS OF ALL TIME
Rather than a top 5 or 10 list, which would be boring because it would consist entirely of first rounds (more games=more potential chaos agents), we'll highlight the maddest single First Round, Second Round, Sweet 16, etc., and note a few honorable mentions.
MADDEST ROUND ONE: 2016; Madness Factor: 71 (round average: 42)
The 13 total upsets in this wild first round was duplicated one other time (2001), but 2016 takes the crown with a slightly higher severity (2001 Madness Factor was 65). Every higher seed except 16 won a game, headlined by 15-seed Middle Tennessee's takedown of 2-seed (they arguably could have been a 1) Michigan State, one of the most popular picks to win the whole thing. The rest of this tournament unfolded mostly according to form, minus a surprising Final Four run by 10-seed Syracuse. Villanova would win on Kris Jenkins iconic buzzer beater in the final.
NEXT MADDEST: 2021 (66), 2012 (66), 2001 (65), 2013 (64)
MADDEST ROUND TWO (tie): 1990, 2000; Madness Factor: 45 (round average: 23.5)
The 2000 tournament is an interesting case. After a record-low (and massively disappointing, to my college self) 3 upsets in round one, all hell broke loose in round 2. There were more upsets (9) than winning favorites (7), and an amazing 8 of the top 12 seeds (1, 2, and 3 seeds) fell. The 1990 tournament was similar in that 6 of the top 12 seeds lost. Both of these events also featured an 8th seeded North Carolina knocking out a 1 (Oklahoma in '90, Stanford in '00).
NEXT MADDEST: 1999 (44), 1986 (43), 2022 (40)
MADDEST SWEET 16: 2022; Madness Factor: 23 (round average: 8.5)
Four of the 8 games staged resulted in an upset, led by the fightin' Peacocks of Saint Peter's in the only Sweet 16 bracket buster ever recorded (over 3-seed Purdue).
NEXT MADDEST: 2024 (20), 1990 (15), 2002 (15)
MADDEST ELITE 8: 2011; Madness Factor: 19 (round average: 4.8)
Three of the four games resulted in upsets: (4 Kentucky over 2 North Carolina, 11 VCU over 1 Kansas, 8 Butler over 2 Florida), leading to a Final Four featuring no 1 or 2 seeds and an 8 vs. 11 Butler-VCU national semifinal.
NEXT MADDEST: 2006 (15), 2016 (11)
MADDEST FINAL 4: 1985; Madness Factor: 13 (round average: 1.8)
We'll treat the Final 4 as a single round rather than two. All the madness in 1985 was generated by the national champs and 3rd maddest team of all time, Villanova, with their upsets of 2-seed Memphis State and 1-seed Georgetown.
NEXT MADDEST: 2014 (12), 1988 (9)
THE 5 MADDEST BRACKETS OF ALL TIME
We'll go back to a traditional ranking list here. It's always fun to see a regional bracket just explode, then see who emerges from the carnage to make the Final Four. Here are the 5 with the most detritus:
2016 MIDWEST - Madness Factor: 46; 7 total upsets (out of 15 games played)
In case you haven't noticed, like buzzards around roadkill, we keep circling around the same ground. The 2016 Midwest bracket gave us Middle Tennessee's giant kill of Michigan State, and 10-seed Syracuse's Final Four berth.
2024 SOUTH - Madness Factor: 46; 8 total upsets
Remember when I gave you an example to illustrate the Madness Factor, like an hour ago? The 2024 South bracket, won by 11-seed NC State, served as our example bracket, and it turns out that I picked a good one.
2013 WEST - Madness Factor: 47; 8 total upsets
This bracket gave us one of the weirdest Sweet 16 Seedigami's (just name dropping something I'll unpack in a future post) with a 9-13-6-2. Ninth-seeded Wichita State broke through to the Final Four, but the biggest upset in the bracket happened in round one, with 14-seed Harvard's takedown of 3-seed New Mexico.
2011 SOUTHWEST - Madness Factor: 52; 9 total upsets
This bracket is an outlier for an off-court reason: it's the only "Southwest" regional ever contested (replacing the typical 'Midwest' moniker for whatever reason). On the court, it delivered plenty of madness, though it is somewhat surprising that it racked up such a high madness score with no 14, 15, or 16 seed wins. Three double digit seeds did make the Sweet 16, though (10 Florida State, 11 VCU, and 12 Richmond), and our 5th maddest team of all time, VCU, took the regional crown.
2018 SOUTH - Madness Factor: 53; 9 total upsets
Eleventh seed Loyola-Chicago emerged out of the fog of war in a bracket that featured an upset in every Sweet 16 and Elite 8 game, two second round games, and four first rounders. Oh, and this happened:
THE 5 MADDEST TOURNAMENTS OF ALL TIME
Well, here we are. It's finally time to unveil the wildest of the wild, the tournaments that delivered more madness in an event synonymous with the term.
1986 - Madness Factor: 105; 18 total upsets
One could argue that all the things that make the NCAA Tournament great were born in 1986. We saw bracket busters (14 seeds Cleveland State and Arkansas-Little Rock, 11 seed LSU). We saw double-digit seeds in the sweet 16 (3 of 'em). We saw favorites bowing out in the first weekend (1-seed St. John's and 2-seeds Michigan and Syracuse). We saw household names made (David Robinson from 7-seed Navy in it's Elite 8 run). We had a buzzer beater (Jeff Hornacek of Iowa State, to defeat Miami (Ohio) in round one. And we had an 11-seed making a miraculous Final Four run (2nd maddest team of all time LSU). This was the template for all the rest. The only thing missing was "One Shining Moment," which didn't debut until 1987. But I have to think 1986 inspired it.
2013 - Madness Factor: 105; 20 total upsets
The wild West regional, won by 9-seed Wichita State, and Dunk City (Florida Gulf Coast) highlighted this tournament. Interestingly, Louisville emerged as the champion both here and in 1986, though the record books will show otherwise. Some shenanigans were going on that led the NCAA to revoke the title, but I saw it with my own eyes. Louisville won.
2014 - Madness Factor: 111; 22 total upsets
Interestingly, this tournament didn't feature one of our maddest rounds or brackets. The madness fell pretty evenly throughout the event, leading to the unprecedented 7 vs. 8 (UConn vs. Kentucky) final. Mercer's takedown of Duke delighted many in the first round, and Kentucky's upset of undefeated Wichita State in round 2 delighted Indiana fans.
2022 - Madness Factor: 117; 21 total upsets
Saint Peter's. The end of the Coach K era at Duke, at the hands of arch-rival (and 8-seed) North Carolina in the national semifinal (Aside: North Carolina has remarkable success when seeded 8th). The maddest Sweet 16 on record. And, strangely, no upsets in the Elite 8. But this tournament falls just short of our champion.
2021 - Madness Factor: 128; 19 total upsets
Maybe the truncated regular season many teams experienced made seeding the tournament more difficult than usual. Maybe the odd, Indiana-only location and quarter-full arenas changed the conditions. Maybe everyone involved subconsciously knew that this tournament needed to put 2 years worth of madness into one (the 2020 event was killed by COVID). Whatever the case, the 2021 Tournament stands at the top of the Madness mountain. And all the madness (upsets, at least) happened prior to the Final Four, which is when that off-the-charts Gonzaga-UCLA semifinal happened. Baylor got the better of them all, spoiling Gonzaga's bid for a perfect season.
And there you have it. But before closing this tome, we need to point out one other tournament that actually stands out as the greatest outlier of them all: 2007.
This event had less than half the Madness Factor (26) as the next lowest tournament (1993 and 2009, with 53). An 11 was the highest to win a first round game (actually two, VCU and Winthrop). No team seeded higher than 7 advanced to the Sweet 16, and the Elite 8 featured a rather vanilla three 1 vs. 2 matchups, plus a 1 vs. 3. Florida, a 1-seed, won its second straight title, but this tournament featured a Madness Factor further from the average of 81.4 than our maddest event. I suppose it's fitting than an event known as "March Madness" would have as it's most uncharacteristic edition the one that was actually the most predictable. It is things like this that make it the best event in the entire world of sports.
Next time, we'll go back to a more analytical view of things and draw out a few Perfect Bracket Parameters from this study of the Madness Factor.
Comments