Ellomeno's 2025 Bracket Breakdown

By now, if you've followed this site, you're familiar with my aim, digested my Perfect Bracket Parameters, and received my invitation to pull pages from our metaphorical book via ESPN Tournament challenge. Seriously though, join and fill out up to 25 brackets. Let's aim for perfection together!

On the eve of the tournament (not counting the First Four, which kinda counts but kinda doesn't... it's like the sports version of opening one gift on Christmas Eve), I thought I'd add to the thousands of pundits breaking down the bracket and sharing their picks. Why should you be interested in mine when there are so many others you can follow? Probably because you're my friend and I sent you a direct link, but hopefully because the intense depth of research I've shown makes my picks worth your thought. I may not play an expect on TV, but I'm an expert nonetheless.

The Big Picture

Let's zoom out first. A number of commentators have pointed out something I've had in mind for most of the season: the field is quite top heavy. Auburn, Duke, Houston, and Florida emerged as near-unanimous 1-seeds, according to the Bracket Matrix. Two bracketologists out of 250 had the Blue Devils on the 2 line, and they both placed in the bottom five in this year's matrix. And no, neither was me.

The 2 and 3 seed lines were nearly as clear cut as the one. Over the season's last month, the top of the field really separated themselves from a muddled midsection. I did poorly in the bracket matrix's scoring because ranking the teams that wound up seeded 4th through 9th felt very much like splitting hairs. The season ending KenPom rankings even reflect this: the net rating difference between #1 (Duke) and #6 (Alabama) is about the same as the difference between #7 (Texas Tech) and #32 (Mississippi State).

While we're speaking about KenPom, six teams have a Net Rating above 30 (Duke, Florida, Houston, Auburn, Tennessee, Alabama). The top four are above 35. To put that into context, since KenPom's statistics originated in 2002, never have 4 teams had a rating of 35 or more, and 19 of the last 24 seasons had no teams reaching that figure. Duke, Florida, Houston, and Auburn are all among the 8 highest rated teams, according to KenPom, since 2002. That's incredible, and an indicator that this tournament may not be as wild and upset-filled, at least in the later stages, than others we've seen recently. Something to think about when making those last minute bracket decisions.

The closest tournament to this one, according to the strength of the teams at the top, was 2015, and that event wound up with three 1-seeds and a 7 in the Final Four: top seeds Duke, Kentucky, and Wisconsin and seventh-seeded Michigan State. In terms of our other metrics, the 2015 tournament featured only 12 upsets (5 minor, 5 major, 2 bracket busters) and a Madness Factor of just 61, lower than the range I gave in my Perfect Bracket Parameters. I don't think this year will be quite that mild, but my final predictions do result in a Madness Factor in the lower end of our range.

My Final Four and Champion

Following that example of 2015, I have three 1-seeds making the final four: Auburn (South), Florida (West), and Houston (Midwest). It is difficult to ignore the historic level these teams are playing at. The one top seed I don't have in my Final Four, Duke, is actually the highest rated KenPom team of all time, but the uncertainty surrounding Cooper Flagg's health is enough to give me pause. That and I've never liked Duke and will find any excuse I can to pick against them. I have them bowing out in the Elite 8 to my surprise interloper to the Final Four: BYU (East). The Cougars have lost only once in the last month, to Houston in the Big 12 tournament, rising from the outside of the bubble to a 6-seed in that span. They're one of the hottest teams in the country, and seem to have come into their own behind their wunderkind coach, Kevin Young. I envision this month to be where we look back and see the emergence of a new power program, as BYU will welcome the #1 high school recruit in the country, AJ Dybantsa, to Provo next year. A strong tourney run this year will push them into the top 10 or top 5 of those "way too early" top 25 polls that appear the week after March Madness ends.

I do see history repeating itself with Houston defeating BYU in the semifinal, and Florida taking out Auburn. I've vacillated between Houston and Florida for the championship. Houston feels due, having been a one seed for three straight years now, and having built a culture and toughness that screams NCAA champion. But I can't ignore how explosive and efficient the Gators have been, and how elite their backcourt is. Great guards generally beget tournament success, and I expect Walter Clayton Jr. to win the MOP as the Florida Gators cut down the nets in San Antonio.

Upsets and Madness

My bracket ended up with 15 total upsets, just outside the bottom edge of my Parameter but fitting Parameter 1: one of these guidelines will be wrong. That's the one for me.

My tournament Madness Factor is 94, with the South and East brackets accumulating most of it. Upset breakdown is as follows: 8 minor, 6 major, and 1 bracket buster. See below for exactly who and when.

I did manage to meet all my parameters save #2 (Predict between 16 and 22 total upsets). I've got just one major upset beyond the Sweet 16, one elite 8 upset (Parameters 3 and 4), 8 non-chalk teams in the Sweet 16 (Parameter 8), and my final 4 seed total is 9. All in all I'm happy with it. We'll see if that happiness lasts beyond around 4pm tomorrow.

The Picks (plus some additional commentary)

You know my Final Four already, so here are my region by region picks:

SOUTH

Advancing from first round: (1) Auburn, (8) Louisville, (5) Michigan, (13) Yale, (11) UNC, (14) Lipscomb, (10) New Mexico, (2) Michigan State

I kicked around a few other bracket buster possibilities (watch out for Wofford and Bryant), but landed on Lipscomb in spite of the fact that it feels like too obvious a choice. Iowa State's Keshon Gilbert, and his 13 points per game, is out, hampering a team that has been mediocre of late (7-7 in their last 14), and Lipscomb can shoot. Yale is also a trendy upset to pick; Texas A&M has also been inconsistent and doesn't feel built for March to me.

Second Round: Auburn over Louisville, Michigan over Yale, UNC over Lipscomb, Michigan State over New Mexico

It was tempting to take New Mexico over the Spartans, but Tom Izzo is notorious for winning the second game in a subregional site. And the Mountain West has historically been abysmal in March. Even the electric Donovan Dent can't overcome those factors.

Sweet 16: Auburn over Michigan, UNC over Michigan State

I flip flopped a bunch here too. In fact, my last change was to swap Auburn for Michigan in this spot. Auburn feels as vulnerable as they have at any point this year, and Michigan is a tough matchup with two 7-footers who can extend the floor. That one could go down to the wire, but I'll trust Auburn's full body of work over their recent hiccup. As for UNC, I can't unsee what they did to San Diego State last night, and the media hubbub over their selection gives them a chip on their shoulder. Their talent level is on par with that of a top 4 seed, and everything is lined up for them to be the latest in a long line of First Four entrants who make a deep run. Another tournament, another 11-seed into the Elite 8.

Final: Auburn over UNC

EAST

Advancing from first round: (1) Duke, (9) Baylor, (12) Liberty, (4) Arizona, (6) BYU, (3) Wisconsin, (7) St. Mary's, (2) Alabama

No real surprises here. Liberty has carried a solid NET and KenPom rating all season, and Oregon has been schizophrenic. In a good coaching matchup, Ritchie McKay maneuvers past Dana Altman.

Second Round: Duke over Baylor, Liberty over Arizona, BYU over Wisconsin, Alabama over St. Mary's

Liberty looks good for a little Cinderella magic, as I don't trust Arizona for some reason. Their best basketball seemed to dry up 3 weeks ago, and Caleb Love is a bit too much of a chucker for my taste.

Sweet 16: Duke over Liberty, BYU over Alabama

I think the biggest hurdle for a deep run from BYU is actually here, not against Duke. Alabama has a ridiculous offense and will likely bury their first 2 opponents. Their problem is on the other side, though. They surrendered 90 or more points 8 times, including to North Dakota and Rutgers. BYU's efficiency and shooting will keep them in what looks to be a shootout.

Final: BYU over Duke

Cue the tears in Durham.

MIDWEST

Advancing to second round: (1) Houston, (8) Gonzaga, (5) Clemson, (13) High Point, (6) Illinois, (3) Kentucky, (7) UCLA, (2) Tennessee

High Point is another trendy upset pick, and for good reason. They'll slash and shoot their way past a shaky-looking Purdue. I wavered on the 7-10 game here, but the aforementioned Mountain West track record made me lean Bruin.

Second Round: Houston over Gonzaga, Clemson over High Point, Illinois over Kentucky, UCLA over Tennessee

A lot of people are talking up the Houston-Gonzaga (potential) matchup, due to Gonzaga's gaudy predictive metrics. But there's a reason they're an 8-seed. Something is different about this year's Zags compared to their typical squad, and I think Houston handles them easily. As for Tennessee and Kentucky, I have a feeling the brutality of the SEC schedule will catch up with a lot of their NCAA teams, and there are reasons not to trust either of these two. Rick Barnes and Tennessee have a history of bouncing out one or two rounds before they should, and Kentucky has had nights where they leak points like one of my garden hoses. Illinois and UCLA may not be world-beaters, but they don't have to be.

Sweet 16: Houston over Clemson, Illinois over UCLA

Clemson is underrated and might be able to give Houston a fight, but the Cougars seem destined for the Final Four. Illinois has more talent than their seed would indicate, and they finish an up-and-down season on an Elite 8 high.

Final: Houston over Illinois

WEST

Advancing to Second Round: (1) Florida, (8) UConn, (12) Colorado State, (4) Maryland, (6) Missouri, (3) Texas Tech, (7) Kansas, (2) St. John's

Memphis is like the bizzaro Gonzaga: great results, lousy predictive metrics. I thought about penciling them into the Sweet 16, then considered the fact that Colorado State has won ten straight and is better than anyone Memphis has played since December. Kansas/Arkansas is a Hall of Fame coaching coin flip, but the Jayhawks have a stronger roster.

Second Round: Florida over UConn, Maryland over Colorado State, Texas Tech over Missouri, Kansas over St. John's

The dream of a three-peat ends here, under a deluge of Florida offense. In a minor upset, Kansas beats St. John's. While it would be fun to have New York's college team make a deep run, they can't shoot, and that tends to catch up to you in March.

Sweet 16: Florida over Maryland, Texas Tech over Kansas

If Maryland were in any other bracket but Florida's, I might have taken them to the Final Four. The Crab Five are talented and have flown under most everyone's radar, but they too will fall to the Gator buzzsaw.

Final: Florida over Texas Tech

And there you have it. Agree? Disagree? Feel free to share in the comments. And, of course, enjoy the Madness.